This Saturday night on HBO, Russian bomber Sergey Kovalev returns to the ring for a matchup with mandatory challenger Nadjib Mohammedi. With the fast-rising Kovalev coming fresh off high-profile wins over Jean Pascal and Bernard Hopkins, Mohammedi represents a step backward in competition.
Since drawing with Glover Young nearly four years ago, Kovalev has been on a ridiculous tear. Ten of his 11 opponents in that period have fallen inside the distance. The lone exception, Bernard Hopkins, was still knocked down by Kovalev, who handily won every round on the scorecards when they met last November. His most recent foe, former lineal titleholder Jean Pascal, went down in the third round and had finally had enough by the eighth. While a bout with current lineal titleholder Adonis Stevenson seems out of reach for now, the Russian remains a destructive force and one of the hottest talents in the sport.
Mohammedi is obviously the B-side here, but he is still a respectable opponent. The French-Algerian has won his last thirteen bouts since a knockout loss to Dmitry Sukhotsky in October 2011, all but two of them inside the distance. It should be noted, however, that his competition has not been particularly strong. Kovalev is an entirely different beast, and the oddsmakers have pegged the Russian as a -10,000 favorite.
Sergey Kovalev (27-0-1; 24 KOs)
That jab serves to keep opponents at range, where Kovalev wants them. He does his best working moving forward, often flashing the jab and then following with a crisp, straight right. The one-two forms the basis of his approach, and when Kovalev gets his body weight heading toward his opponent, he resembles nothing so much as a runaway freight train. Shift punches allow Kovalev to cover a tremendous amount of distance as he moves, and he likes to follow his shifting right hand with a straight left from an almost squared stance. He is proficient fighting off the back foot, and has added a back-stepping left hook to complement his excellent counter right hand.
Kovalev’s footwork is likely the weakest part of his game. The shift steps make up for this, as they provide additional angles from which Kovalev can throw, but he is not an outstanding ring-cutter. The Russian is hittable, and he often exposes his jaw and temple as his headlong rushes bring him past his opponent. Kovalev is also vulnerable in the pocket after he throws, as he tends to leave his hands down and forgets to move his head. He works at a tremendous pace, though, and the combination of volume and power is too much for most opponents to handle.
Nadjib Mohammedi (37-3; 23 KOs)
Mohammedi is a solid and well-balanced fighter who is always in position to throw. He likes to counterpunch, and he relies on crisp footwork, clean pivots and sharp angles to land his arsenal of back-stepping left hooks and right crosses. He essentially plays a game of inches, measuring and baiting with a probing jab, and then drawing his opponent onto his punches as he moves back out of the way. If his opponent grows wary of moving forward, Mohammedi is happy to subtly pressure, using the jab to open up counters in the pocket.
The Frenchman is very much a rhythm fighter. His probing jab sets a steady, slow speed and measures the distance, and when his opponent commits he whips a rapid shot or two. Mohammedi is not much of a combination puncher unless his opponent simply stops in front of him, in which case he can drop a strong head-body sequence of three to five shots. Either way, however, he pushes a fantastic pace and produces a consistently high volume of offense.
The downside to being a defined rhythm fighter is that consistent pressure has a tendency to disrupt Mohammedi’s game, which relies heavily on small amounts of space and the time those tiny chunks of distance provide to open up his counter shots. He is hittable moving backward and lacks real one-punch knockout power, which forces him to rely on an accumulation of shots.
The Pick: As the wide betting odds indicate, this matchup drastically favors Kovalev. He is bigger, longer, more physical, and a much harder puncher. Moreover, the specifics of the stylistic clash seem to line up in Kovalev’s favor. The Russian does his best work moving forward, and he can cover the distance quickly enough to take away the space and time Mohammedi needs to work his counter game.
Mohammedi can give Kovalev trouble, though. He excels at pivoting and landing hard counter shots on overaggressive opponents, and Kovalev’s tendency to throw himself forward might play into that. Mohammedi will have some success landing those counters, but eventually Kovalev will catch the Frenchman with a hard series of shots as he tries to get out of harm’s way. The pick is Kovalev by knockout in the fourth round.
Follow Sherdog.com preview expert Patrick Wyman on Twitter.